College Football Best Bets for Week 4: Is Oregon's Season on the Line Against USC?
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College Football Best Bets for Week 4: Is Oregon's Season on the Line Against USC?

Kody Malstrom breaks down his three best college football bets for Week 4, including angles on Oregon vs. USC and Wake Forest vs. Louisville.

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The schedule ramps up in Week 4, pitting college football playoff contenders against each other with the winner securing a massive edge in the race for one of the wildcard spots. 

After an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma State, Oregon must take care of business on the road against USC or risk digging too deep into a hole for them to climb out of. Here are the best college football bets to make in Week 4.

Week 4 College Football Best Bets

Oregon (Team Total o31.5) vs. USC (-110, DraftKings)

With Oregon’s playoff hopes hanging by a thread, the Ducks must avoid losing another game if they want to remain in contention for the playoffs. Arguably no title contender has looked worse than Oregon a quarter into the season, barely squeaking past Boise State before losing to Oklahoma State in Week 2.

Fortunately for the Ducks, they will have a great opportunity to light up the scoreboard against USC by attacking a defense that struggles to keep opponents out of scoring position, per its below-league-average marks in defensive success rate and finishing drives. The Trojans' inability to create disruptions will allow Dante Moore to get into a rhythm, reducing the amount of havoc in his throws, which will lead to a decline in his total number of turnover-worthy plays.

To help hold on to a lead, the Ducks' front seven will be able to neutralize the Trojans' ground game by stuffing an offensive line that ranks 95th in rush PPA. By halting USC’s RBs, Oregon can drop LBs in coverage, making it easier to smother Jayden Maiava’s passing lanes and stall out the Trojans' drives early on in the possessions.

Wake Forest vs. Louisville (o57.5) (-108, DraftKings)

Fresh off an impressive win over SMU, Louisville is no longer going under the radar as a potential contender for the playoffs. The Cardinals' success this season can be attributed to the offense, fielding a group that ranks near the top of the board in EPA per play and points per opportunity.

Every bit of the Cardinals' production on offense has been needed to mask a defense that grades out poorly in success rate and explosiveness, forcing them to play in high-variance track meets. With Wake Forest creating explosive plays at a high rate, expect points to be put up on the board at a blistering fast pace, leading to a thrilling high-scoring affair.

Oklahoma (Team Total u14.5) vs. Georgia (-110, BetMGM)

Like Oregon, Oklahoma is also on the ropes after suffering a loss to Michigan. While the Sooners have been dominant on defense, the offense has struggled to get into a groove, entering Week 4 ranked outside the top-75 in success rate, finishing drives, explosiveness and points per opportunity. Even with health back on his side, John Mateer has struggled with his consistency while completing just 62.7% of his passes.

In a daunting matchup against Georgia, expect Mateer to continue to underwhelm in the pocket while combatting against a defense that excels in coverage, per top-15 marks in defensive pass success rate and PPA. While weaving the ball through narrow passing lanes, the Bulldogs will be able to keep a defender near the point of contact, lowering the Sooners' probability of hauling in a contested catch.

With the Sooners team total starting to steam down across multiple sportsbooks, it’s vital you bet them at no lower than the key number of 14. With Gunnar Stockton capable of countering the Sooners' suffocating coverage by extending plays with his legs, diversify your risk and place a separate wager on the Bulldogs to cover the -13.5 spread as well.

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